The banks say bad debts are peaking and (in some cases) coming down, something that usually lags a recovery. A better than expected result on unemployment is the latest evidence. It may prove to be a blip. But the predictions held that we should be in a much worse state than we are actually in.
There’s been no wave of optimism, to be sure. More a steady drip, drip. But it is there, and it is perceptible.
That will have to be addressed after the election if the UK is to keep its prized AAA credit rating, a downgrade to which would have a myriad of unpleasant consequences.
By attacking it too hard, or in the wrong way, we could end up sliding rapidly down a very long snake into the dreaded “double-dip recession” rather than the current slow climb up a long ladder. But climbing we now are. The worst could be over.
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